Industry Issues: Commodities
2003/2004 Cocoa Commodities
Supply and Outlook
COMMODITIES – COCOA REVIEW
By: Bill Guyton and Robert Peck
WORLD SUPPLY AND OUTLOOK :
World production forecasts for 2003/04 are slightly lower than the previous year.
West Africa continues to lead global production. Roughly 70 percent of the world's crop is grown in West Africa, but analysts predict a 2.4 percent decline this coming year. Cocoa grown in Asia represents 18 percent of global yield. Growth in the region is predicted to increase by 5.1 percent primarily in Indonesia. The Americas produce 14 percent of world supply and estimates indicate a 3.9 percent increase in the coming year.
FIGURE 1: WORLD PRODUCTION FORECAST
COUNTRY |
2000/01 |
2001/02 |
2002/03
|
2003/04 (forecast) |
WEST AFRICA |
Ivory Coast |
1,195 |
1,219 |
1,294 |
1,240 |
Ghana |
415 |
401 |
498 |
495+ |
Nigeria |
174 |
187 |
160 |
170 |
Cameroon |
135 |
128 |
155 |
150 |
Other Africa |
30 |
32 |
35 |
35 |
Total Africa |
1,949 |
1,967 |
2,142 |
2,090
(-2.4%) |
ASIA/OCEANIA |
Indonesia |
389 |
453 |
430 |
450 |
Malaysia |
40 |
35 |
33 |
37 |
Other Asia |
61 |
59 |
61 |
64 |
Total Asia |
490 |
546 |
524 |
551 (+5.2%) |
AMERICAS |
Brazil |
163 |
124 |
163 |
173 |
Ecuador |
96 |
85 |
85 |
90 |
Other America |
164 |
174 |
170 |
171 |
Total Americas |
422 |
383 |
418 |
434 (+3.9%) |
WORLD |
TOTAL |
2,861 |
2,896 |
3,084 |
3,075
(-0.3%) |
Units ‘000 tons
Sources: LMC International, ICCO, ED&F Man
WEST AFRICA
In the Ivory Coast, the main harvest season started late. Analysts predict a 50,000 - 70,000MT decline from the previous year, although forecasting has been difficult due to civil conflicts in the Western regions of the country and from cross border trade with neighboring countries taking advantage of higher farm gate prices. The